Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) published the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) detailing Key Judgments regarding the intentions and capabilities of Iran’s nuclear program.

The following is the, “Scope Note” of the NIE:

This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) assesses the status of Iran’s nuclear program, and the program’s outlook over the next 10 years. This time frame is more appropriate for estimating capabilities than intentions and foreign reactions, which are more difficult to estimate over a decade.

In presenting the Intelligence Community’s assessment of Iranian nuclear intentions and capabilities, the NIE thoroughly reviews all available information on these questions, examines the range of reasonable scenarios consistent with this information, and describes the key factors we judge would drive or impede nuclear progress in Iran.

This NIE is an extensive reexamination of the issues in the May 2005 assessment.

This Estimate focuses on the following key questions:

What are Iran’s intentions toward developing nuclear weapons?

What domestic factors affect Iran’s decision-making on whether to develop nuclear weapons?

What external factors affect Iran’s decision-making on whether to develop nuclear weapons?

What is the range of potential Iranian actions concerning the development of nuclear weapons, and the decisive factors that would lead Iran to choose one course of action over another?

What is Iran’s current and projected capability to develop nuclear weapons? What are our key assumptions, and Iran’s key chokepoints/vulnerabilities?
The NIE is available HERE.